South Florida Water Management District Weather

10:15AM Friday, December 09, 2022 (mrn)

 

...high pressure to remain in place over the next several days...

...light showers possible along the east coast today through Sun...

...dry otherwise...

...a decaying front to increase shower activity over the north on Mon...

...a strong cold front to arrive Thu, with heavy rains possible over the west/northwest...

...below average weekly rainfall expected...

 

Quantitative

Precipitation

Forecast

24Hr Begin  7AM Fri

Local

Max

24Hr Begin

7AM Sat

24Hr Begin

7AM Sun

24Hr Begin

7AM Mon

24Hr Begin

7AM Tue

Upper Kissimmee       

   .0

  0"

  .0

  .0

  .05

   .0

Lower Kissimmee       

   .0

  0"

  .0

  .0

  .0

   .0

Lake Okeechobee       

   .0

  0"

  .0

  .0

  .0

   .0

East Agricultural Areas

   .0

  0"

  .0

  .0

  .0

   .0

West Agricultural Areas

   .0

  0"

  .0

  .0

  .0

   .0

Conservation Areas 1&2

   .01

 <1"

  .0

  .01

  .0

   .02

Conservation Area 3   

   .01

 <1"

  .0

  .01

  .0

   .0

Martin/St Lucie Counties

   .0

  0"

  .0

  .01

  .0

   .03

East Palm Beach County

   .01

 <1"

  .0

  .01

  .0

   .05

East Broward County   

   .01

 <1"

  .0

  .01

  .0

   .04

East Miami-Dade County

   .01

 <1"

  .0

  .01

  .0

   .02

East Caloosahatchee   

   .0

  0"

  .0

  .0

  .0

   .0

Big Cypress Preserve  

   .0

  0"

  .0

  .0

  .0

   .0

Southwest Coast       

   .0

  0"

  .0

  .0

  .0

   .0

District Overall

0.00

  -

 0.00

 0.00

 0.00

  0.01

Forecast Confidence

High

  -

High

Mod-High

Mod-High

Mod-High

Most Likely District-wide Range

0.00-0.01

-

0.00-0.01

0.00-0.01

0.00-0.01

0.00-0.03

 

Discussion: A large region of mid-level high pressure remains centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The subsidence, or sinking air, associated with the region of high pressure has dried out the mid-layers of the atmosphere considerably, as evidenced from this morning’s sounding from Miami. However, a gentle northeast breeze will transport some shallow oceanic moisture onshore today, which will be enough to trigger isolated to widely scattered showers along the east coast. The strong region of high pressure will erode greatly on Monday, which will allow a weak upper disturbance, currently located off the coast of California, to pass through north Florida. Although the upper disturbance will be in the process of dissipating while it passes through the region, it will provide enough ‘lift’ to promote some light shower activity over the northern interior. Afterwards, the region of high pressure will rebuild, and a northeasterly wind will return. With some remnant low amounts of moisture present, light east coast shower activity will resume on Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall is not expected to penetrate far inland. Meanwhile, a large and slow-moving upper disturbance is expected to dig into the western US early next week. By Wednesday, it will cross into the central US, and then by Thursday it will enter the Ohio Valley. This large upper disturbance will cause the region of mid-level high pressure to weaken and displace eastward into the western Atlantic, well away from Florida. At the surface, a deep cold front will stretch from the central US into the central Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the front, the wind direction will veer southwesterly on Thursday, which will channel high levels of tropical moisture from the Caribbean northward into the SFWMD. Widely scattered showers and storms could form area-wide on Thursday afternoon before the arrival of the front. Next, heavy storms are likely over the western and northwestern parts of the SFWMD Thursday night while the strong frontal boundary advances through the area. Below average rainfall is expected for the 7-day period ending next Friday morning.

 

 

Friday: Isolated to widely scattered light showers along the lower east coast during the afternoon. NW winds at 5-10 mph over the north, veering NE over the south.

Saturday:  An isolated shower possible along the east coast; dry elsewhere. Occasional N/NE winds at about 5 mph.

Sunday:  Isolated to widely scattered showers along the east coast during the afternoon. Light and variable winds; becoming NW at about 5 mph during the evening.

Monday:  An isolated shower possible along the east coast. Some light shower activity possible over the northern interior during the evening and overnight. W/NW winds at 5-10 mph.

Tuesday:  Intermittent shower activity along the east coast, beginning during the afternoon and lasting until early next morning. N winds at 5-10 mph, becoming NE by the evening.

Wednesday:  Light shower activity along the east coast early, diminishing by the late afternoon. E winds at 5 mph, veering SE at 10-18 mph by the afternoon (0.01”).

Thursday:  Light shower activity possible along the east coast during the daytime. A cold front could pass through the northern interior by the evening or early part of the night. Shower activity will increase over the western and northern parts of the SFWMD during the evening, with heavy rain and storms possible overnight. S winds at 5-10 mph early, veering SE at 10-25 mph by the afternoon (0.15”).

 

7-Day District-wide QPF/(Most Likely Range):  0.18" (0.13”-0.28")

Historical 7-Day Average:  0.48"

 

Lake Okeechobee Info:

https://w3.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/reports/r-oke.txt

 

NWS Hazardous Weather Outlooks:

https:/apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/hwo_sfwmd.html