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South Florida
Water Management District Weather
10:01AM Friday,
July 01, 2022 (tbk)
…SOUTHEASTERLY
STEERING WINDS & GOOD MOISTURE FAVOR GREATEST AFTERNOON RAINS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SFWMD THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING…DRIER AIR IN THE EAST KEEP
RAINFALL AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM…
…MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE STRENTHENS THIS WEEKEND…AN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
WIND REGIME FAVORS MORNING RAINS IN THE EAST & GREATER AFTERNOON RAINS OVER
THE INTERIOR & THE WEST SAT-MON…
…THE
NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE SFWMD ON TUES & WEST OF
THE AREA ON WEDS COULD CAUSE ENHANCED RAINS…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE…EVEN
OVER A BROADER SCALE…
…SUBSTANTIALLY
LESS RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURS NEXT WEEK…
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast |
24Hr Begin 7AM Fri |
Local Max |
24Hr Begin 7AM Sat |
24Hr Begin 7AM Sun |
24Hr Begin 7AM Mon |
24Hr Begin 7AM Tue |
Upper Kissimmee |
.56 |
5" |
.19 |
.25 |
.27 |
.20 |
Lower Kissimmee |
.25 |
4" |
.10 |
.05 |
.16 |
.19 |
Lake Okeechobee |
.20 |
2.5" |
.14 |
.04 |
.08 |
.17 |
East Agricultural Areas |
.11 |
1.5" |
.27 |
.09 |
.09 |
.31 |
West Agricultural Areas |
.26 |
3" |
.30 |
.14 |
.12 |
.39 |
Conservation Areas 1&2 |
.05 |
<1" |
.11 |
.06 |
.09 |
.34 |
Conservation Area 3 |
.09 |
1" |
.14 |
.10 |
.12 |
.41 |
Martin/StLucie Counties |
.12 |
2" |
.21 |
.07 |
.10 |
.23 |
East Palm Beach County |
.04 |
1.5" |
.13 |
.04 |
.09 |
.29 |
East Broward County |
.03 |
<1" |
.08 |
.01 |
.08 |
.35 |
East Miami-Dade County |
.03 |
<1" |
.09 |
.01 |
.10 |
.40 |
East Caloosahatchee |
.50 |
5" |
.32 |
.17 |
.14 |
.32 |
Big Cypress Preserve |
.23 |
3" |
.23 |
.17 |
.17 |
.47 |
Southwest Coast |
.50 |
5" |
.34 |
.28 |
.30 |
.54 |
District Overall |
0.25 |
- |
0.20 |
0.12 |
0.15 |
0.33 |
Forecast Confidence |
Mod-High |
- |
Mod-Low |
Mod-Low |
Mod-Low |
Mod-Low |
Most Likely Range |
0.15-0.35 |
- |
0.10-0.31 |
0.07-0.26 |
0.06-0.30 |
0.21-0.45 |
Synopsis: A surface
trough of low pressure along the southeast coast of the U.S. is expected to
hang back over north Florida through today while an upper-level low that was
near the Florida Keys yesterday sinks well south of the area over Cuba and the northern
Caribbean Sea. Abundant and deep
moisture surrounding and pooling south of the surface trough will extend southward
through the northwestern half of the SFWMD this afternoon while subsidence
(or sinking air) around the upper-level low causes a warming and drying of the
mid-levels of the atmosphere over the southeastern part of the SFWMD later
today. The result of these factors
should be a QPF that shows a good or even widespread coverage of rainfall over
the western to northwestern half of the SFMWD from afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, with the heaviest rains likely from the western interior through
the Kissimmee Valley where the steering winds will be turn from southeasterly around
Lake Okeechobee to southwesterly over the far north. Much drier conditions with little substantive
rainfall are expected in the southeast where a more stable atmosphere and a
drying are seen occurring soon. The
median large areal average rainfall in the southeast is under a tenth of an
inch and perhaps even well under that in most locations while a quarter to around
half of an inch is the median large areal average rainfall over the
northwestern half of the SFWMD, values all at or above the daily climatological
average. The 10% exceedance or reasonable
worst-case scenario is half to three quarters of an inch over the wettest
areas today, with the highest potential probably over the Kissimmee valley
where the steering winds are more convergent and the moisture supply greater. Next, a quick-moving but strong upper-air
disturbance passing through the Great Lakes and northeastern U.S. today and
Saturday will temporarily erode the mid-level high pressure that has been dominating
the southern U.S. recently. While less
overall rain seems most likely on Saturday, the forecast spread or degree of
model differences is rather wide, indicating an uncertain forecast regarding
how much rain to expect. However, the
steering wind regime will generally favor less rain in the east and greater
rains over the interior and the west. Beginning Sunday, the mid-level high
pressure will rebuild, centered near the northern Gulf Coast, and is most
likely to result an overall drier pattern for the SFWMD on Sunday and
Monday. A general easterly to
east-southeasterly steering regime around the high pressure will again favor
morning rains in the east and greater rains over the interior and the west,
albeit quite a bit less observed Thursday and Friday of this week. Next, a tropical wave currently approaching
the Windward Islands could show signs of organization until it reaches the
eastern/central Caribbean Sea this weekend, where it will then encounter strong
upper-level winds that will make any further development unlikely. However, the northern end of the tropical
wave is forecast to pass through the Florida Straits and south Florida on
Tuesday and move past the area into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The moisture envelope and increased instability
accompanying the wave as it passes through southern Florida and the Florida Straits
should cause a large increase of total SFWMD to above the daily climatological
average both Tuesday and Wednesday, with main focus of the enhanced rains around
and south of Lake Okeechobee on Tuesday and over western areas on
Wednesday. The favorable large-scale
conditions associated with the tropical wave’s passage will mean an increased
risk of locally significant rainfall totals, possibly even over a broader scale
and more than currently forecast. After
mid-week next week, the tropical wave will be well west of the area and the strong
mid-level ridge and its associated subsidence will probably make for a
much drier forecast, with rainfall below or well below the daily climatological
average. For the week ending next Friday morning, total SFWMD rainfall is most
likely to be below or slightly below the long-term weekly average. However, given the higher degree of
uncertainty regarding the rainfall forecasts the next few days and the possibility
that rains associated with the tropical wave could be greater, total weekly SFWMD
rainfall could be near to somewhat above average if the upper quartile of model
solutions verify.
Friday: A few showers in the east this morning and
then isolated or widely scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms through the
eastern interior through early or mid-afternoon before rain chances diminish.
Then scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern or
western half of the SFWMD, with heaviest rains from the western interior
through the Kissimmee Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally significant rainfall
accumulations are possible over these areas. A lake ‘shadow’
could form northwest or west-northwest of Lake Okeechobee over which
significantly less rainfall, and possibly little to none, would occur relative
to the surrounding areas. Evening rains
over the northwestern half of the SFWMD should diminish, followed by a slight
chance of east-coast showers overnight.
Mainly ESE to SE winds 5 to 15 mph but lighter with calm conditions at
some inland locations.
Saturday: A chance of widely scattered shower activity in the east during the morning,
followed by decreasing rain chances by early or mid-afternoon. Then afternoon
showers and thunderstorms developing over the interior of the SFWMD and the
west/west coast, ending during the early evening. A localized, significant
rainfall accumulation is possible over the west. A lake ‘shadow’ could form northwest
of Lake Okeechobee over which significantly less rainfall, and possibly little
to none, would occur relative to the surrounding areas. Evening rains diminishing,
followed by light-east coast showers possible overnight. E to SE winds 5 to 15 mph, with occasional
gusts to 20 mph along and near the east coast through the Florida Keys.
Sunday: Little rain in the east,
except for isolated morning showers. Then decreasing rain chances during the
afternoon. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms, widely scattered or scattered
in coverage, likely over the interior of the west, lasting into the early
evening in some cases before diminishing. A lake ‘shadow’ could form west-northwest
of Lake Okeechobee over which significantly less rainfall, and possibly little
to none, would occur relative to the surrounding areas. Isolated east-coast showers overnight. E to
ESE winds 5 to 15 mph.
Monday: Widely scattered shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity in the east during the morning, followed by
decreasing rain chances. Then greater interior and western rains during the
afternoon to early evening. A lake ‘shadow’ could form west or west-northwest
of Lake Okeechobee over which significantly less rainfall, and possibly little
to none, would occur relative to the surrounding areas. Evening rains diminishing, followed by a few east-coast
showers overnight. Mainly E to ESE winds 5 to 15 mph, backing E to ENE by Tuesday
morning.
Tuesday: An increase of total
rainfall to at or above the daily climatological average due to a tropical wave
passage. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the east during the
morning and then continuing off and on during the day. Then heavier afternoon rains
developing over the interior and the west, especially from around Lake
Okeechobee southward. With the wave’s passage, there will be elevated risk of
locally heavy rainfall and potentially on an even broader scale. A lake ‘shadow’
could form west-northwest of Lake Okeechobee over which significantly less
rainfall, and possibly little to none, would occur relative to the surrounding
areas. Although rains should diminish in
coverage during the evening, additional showers and isolated thunderstorms
could move onshore the east-coast overnight.
ENE winds very thing in the morning 5 to 15 mph, becoming E to SE by
afternoon and then SE and light overnight.
Wednesday: A continued good chance of rainfall at or above the daily climatological
average the northern end of a tropical wave passes to the west. Scattered to
numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the east during the morning.
Then numerous showers and thunderstorms over the interior and the west, with
western area seeing an above-normal risk of excessive rainfall, perhaps even on
a broader scale. A lake ‘shadow’ could form northwest of Lake Okeechobee over
which significantly less rainfall, and possibly little to none, would occur relative
to the surrounding areas. Afternoon rains could extend into the evening with a
continued chance of isolated or widely scattered east-coast rains overnight. SE
to occasionally S winds 5 to 15 mph but 10 to 20 mph during the afternoon in
coastal areas, with occasional gusts up to 25 mph. Winds diminishing to 5 to 10
mph or less over the interior overnight (0.32").
Thursday: Significantly less total rainfall, with total rainfall probably below
the daily climatological average. A chance of isolated or widely scattered shower
activity in the east during the morning, followed by decreasing rain chances
during the afternoon. The widely scattered rains likely over the interior and
the west, with the greatest rain stretching from near the west coast through the
Kissimmee Valley. A lake ‘shadow’ could
form west-northwest or northwest of Lake Okeechobee over which significantly
less rainfall, and possibly little to none, would occur relative to the
surrounding areas. Afternoon rains diminishing by the early evening, followed
by a chance of very isolated east-coast showers overnight. Mainly E to SE winds 5 to 15 mph, except occasionally
SE to S north of Lake Okeechobee. Light winds overnight (0.08").
7-Day SFWMD-wide QPF/(Most Likely
Range): 1.45"
(0.85”-2.20”)
Historical 7-Day Average: 1.74"
Lake Okeechobee Info:
https://w3.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/reports/r-oke.txt
NWS Hazardous Weather Outlooks:
https:/apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/hwo_sfwmd.html