South Florida
Water Management District Weather
10:15AM Friday,
December 09, 2022 (mrn)
...high
pressure to remain in place over the next several days...
...light
showers possible along the east coast today through Sun...
...dry
otherwise...
...a
decaying front to increase shower activity over the north on Mon...
...a
strong cold front to arrive Thu, with heavy rains possible over the west/northwest...
...below
average weekly rainfall expected...
|
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast |
24Hr Begin 7AM Fri |
Local Max |
24Hr Begin 7AM Sat |
24Hr Begin 7AM Sun |
24Hr Begin 7AM Mon |
24Hr Begin 7AM Tue |
|
Upper
Kissimmee |
.0 |
0" |
.0 |
.0 |
.05 |
.0 |
|
Lower
Kissimmee |
.0 |
0" |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
|
Lake
Okeechobee |
.0 |
0" |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
|
East
Agricultural Areas |
.0 |
0" |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
|
West
Agricultural Areas |
.0 |
0" |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
|
Conservation
Areas 1&2 |
.01 |
<1" |
.0 |
.01 |
.0 |
.02 |
|
Conservation
Area 3 |
.01 |
<1" |
.0 |
.01 |
.0 |
.0 |
|
Martin/St Lucie
Counties |
.0 |
0" |
.0 |
.01 |
.0 |
.03 |
|
East Palm Beach
County |
.01 |
<1" |
.0 |
.01 |
.0 |
.05 |
|
East Broward
County |
.01 |
<1" |
.0 |
.01 |
.0 |
.04 |
|
East Miami-Dade
County |
.01 |
<1" |
.0 |
.01 |
.0 |
.02 |
|
East
Caloosahatchee |
.0 |
0" |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
|
Big Cypress
Preserve |
.0 |
0" |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
|
Southwest
Coast |
.0 |
0" |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
.0 |
|
District Overall |
0.00 |
- |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
|
Forecast Confidence |
High |
- |
High |
Mod-High |
Mod-High |
Mod-High |
|
Most Likely District-wide Range |
0.00-0.01 |
- |
0.00-0.01 |
0.00-0.01 |
0.00-0.01 |
0.00-0.03 |
Discussion: A large
region of mid-level high pressure remains centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The
subsidence, or sinking air, associated with the region of high pressure has
dried out the mid-layers of the atmosphere considerably, as evidenced from this
morning’s sounding from Miami. However, a gentle northeast breeze will
transport some shallow oceanic moisture onshore today, which will be enough to
trigger isolated to widely scattered showers along the east coast. The strong
region of high pressure will erode greatly on Monday, which will allow a weak upper
disturbance, currently located off the coast of California, to pass through
north Florida. Although the upper disturbance will be in the process of
dissipating while it passes through the region, it will provide enough ‘lift’
to promote some light shower activity over the northern interior. Afterwards, the
region of high pressure will rebuild, and a northeasterly wind will return. With
some remnant low amounts of moisture present, light east coast shower activity
will resume on Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall is not expected to penetrate
far inland. Meanwhile, a large and slow-moving upper disturbance is expected to
dig into the western US early next week. By Wednesday, it will cross into the
central US, and then by Thursday it will enter the Ohio Valley. This large upper
disturbance will cause the region of mid-level high pressure to weaken and
displace eastward into the western Atlantic, well away from Florida. At the
surface, a deep cold front will stretch from the central US into the central
Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the front, the wind direction will veer southwesterly
on Thursday, which will channel high levels of tropical moisture from the Caribbean
northward into the SFWMD. Widely scattered showers and storms could form
area-wide on Thursday afternoon before the arrival of the front. Next, heavy
storms are likely over the western and northwestern parts of the SFWMD Thursday
night while the strong frontal boundary advances through the area. Below average
rainfall is expected for the 7-day period ending next Friday morning.
Friday: Isolated to widely scattered light showers along the lower east coast
during the afternoon. NW winds at 5-10
mph over the north, veering NE over the south.
Saturday: An isolated shower possible along the east coast; dry elsewhere. Occasional N/NE winds at about 5 mph.
Sunday: Isolated to widely
scattered showers along the east coast during the afternoon. Light and variable
winds; becoming NW at about 5 mph during the evening.
Monday: An isolated shower possible along the east
coast. Some light shower activity possible over the northern interior during
the evening and overnight. W/NW winds at 5-10 mph.
Tuesday: Intermittent shower activity along the east
coast, beginning during the afternoon and lasting until early next morning. N
winds at 5-10 mph, becoming NE by the evening.
Wednesday: Light shower activity along
the east coast early, diminishing by the late afternoon. E winds at 5 mph, veering
SE at 10-18 mph by the afternoon (0.01”).
Thursday: Light shower activity possible
along the east coast during the daytime. A cold front could pass through the
northern interior by the evening or early part of the night. Shower activity
will increase over the western and northern parts of the SFWMD during the
evening, with heavy rain and storms possible overnight. S winds at 5-10 mph
early, veering SE at 10-25 mph by the afternoon (0.15”).
7-Day District-wide QPF/(Most
Likely Range): 0.18"
(0.13”-0.28")
Historical 7-Day Average: 0.48"
Lake Okeechobee Info:
https://w3.saj.usace.army.mil/h2o/reports/r-oke.txt
NWS Hazardous Weather Outlooks:
https:/apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/hwo_sfwmd.html